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Archive for futures
It is very difficult to develop a trading system that can adjust to different market conditions. In simple terms, it is very difficult to adjust a mechanical trading system to a different market conditions if you are not the author of that system.
So how do you cater for this fact that markets keep on changing all the time. For that, you will need to develop a diversified trading system consisting of a set of trading systems that can be used as a basis for a specific trade tactics at any given moment.
Trading systems based on these principles can be complex and adjustable. Such a diversified trading system can be used according to a trader’s free choice and considering the individual situation.
This optimization can provide an effective evaluation of market shifts and trends at any given time. Such a diversified trading system can be optimized for current market condition and the trader’s resources at any given moment.
The only thing necessary is to find the tools for the probability evaluation for the trading system with maximum accuracy and minimum time. The optimal solution could be a diversified trading system based on the natural market features and regularities. A trading system needs to be evaluated by calculating its win ratio over let’s say at least 100 trades.
A mechanical trading system is a better solution than a discrete trading. Developing a mechanical trading system with a set of trading rules that you can apply rigorously in making your trading decisions in any market condition should be your goal. Mechanical trading is good in the sense that it helps you avoid emotions in making your trading decisions. Emotions are your biggest enemy in trading. Fear and greed will always force you to make wrong trading decisions. Have you ever heard about the turtle trading experiment? This experiment was done in’80s in the commodity futures market.
So in the end what you need is to develop your own trading system that has been thoroughly tested and its performance parameters measure accurately by you. If you have a good trading system, you can become a highly successful trader. Turtle trading experiment was conducted to demonstrate the fact that it’s not the trader that matters; it’s the trading system that matters.
As a young person, you must have learned that just by observing good players play their games you could improve your level of playing tennis, golf, badminton, swimming or for that matter any type of game. What you need to do is learn from successful traders and try to copy their trading systems.
The same principle applies in trading. Have you heard about the Surefire Trading Challenge? Surefire trading challenge is held after every few months. The winner gets a cash prize of $5000. In every tournament thousands of forex traders take part from all over the globe. The most interesting thing is that most of these traders are part time traders and not professional traders. The top traders have an ROI of almost like 2000-3000% in one month. You need to take a look at these 25 forex trading systems that had emerged on the top of more than 5000 traders who had taken part in a recent forex trading championship. The best forex trading system had an ROI of almost 3000% in one month. By observing the trading systems of successful traders you can also develop your own highly successful trading system.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Discover a Revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System. Read about a Forex Trading System with an ROI of 3000% per month.
At one point in your trading career that might come soon rather than later, you would want to switch over to a mechanical trading system. Using a mechanical trading system not only helps traders to make decisions and increase profits but it also provides great psychological comfort to the traders.
You will realize the necessity of switching over to the systems trade in order to lower the psychological pressure experienced when making every market transaction. You will find most of the trader using a trading system approach to trading. Some of them may use a discrete trading system while others prefer a mechanical trading system.
The mechanical trading system lacks fundamental analysis capacity. However, the mechanical trading system set of rules may be translated into a computer program for automated trading.
The trading system then generates trading signals that can be used by traders having access to the trading system. The creator of such a mechanical trading system then becomes just another user of the trading system monitoring the computer generated signals.
Developing these automated forex trading systems is the name of the game these days. These automated forex trading systems are also known as forex robots. These trading systems may be taken as grey and black boxes. Their prices might vary from a few hundred dollars to hundred of thousands of dollars. Many traders over their trading careers develop their own trading systems. Besides the traders using their own trading systems, there are now many actively developed trading systems for sale as computer programs.
The most significant thing about these programs is that the traders should be able to accomplish transactions in accordance with the signals generated by the trading system. Sometimes theses trading systems are developed for big banks and corporations.
Majority of the successful individual traders use self developed mechanical trading systems. However, it is very difficult for a mechanical trading system to cope with different market conditions.
Change of market behavior leads to negative results from a previously effective trading system which obviously would require replacement. For example, many trading systems that are satisfactory in trending conditions become highly ineffective in nontrending environment. How do you deal with the challenge of changing market situations? This is the most serious challenge that automated forex trading has to solve. One way is to use a diversified forex trading system.
Many trading systems now depend on complex mathematical formula which is not understandable by the trader if the trader is not the author of the trading system. The most common disadvantage of these trading systems is the negative balance between he profitable and unprofitable trades.
In other words, the average profit of each profitable transaction is greater than the average loss of each unprofitable transaction. Obviously the trading system can only be profitable in the long run if the ratio of the profitable trades is higher than the non-profitable trades.
As a user of a mechanical trading system your options are limited. The trader must accurately and unconditionally follow the trading system without making any attempt to adjust it to the market conditions. Making correction in any mechanical trading system in the process of the trade is almost impossible until and unless you are the developer of that trading system. This is one of the reasons why you need to develop your own trading system.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Discover a Revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System. Read about a Forex Trading System with an ROI of 3000% per month.
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In the world of investing there are many different investment vehicles and strategies but they can be split into three broad categories. The advantage of thinking from this point of view is that it makes it easier to decide which form of investing or which combination of investing will best suit you.
Let’s have a look at the three broad categories of investing and look at the advantages and disadvantages of each.Passive Investing
Passive investing is when you put the investment decision making into the hands of someone else, ideally an expert investment manager.
The advantages of passive investment are that you are not required to have any investment expertise and you don’t have to invest your time, only your money. The disadvantages are that firstly you have relinquished your control over your money and secondly the returns for these types of investment are usually uninspiring.
Common examples of passive investing are savings accounts, government bonds, property trusts and mutual funds. Most people invest for their retirement under some form of passive investment that usually has special tax concessions which vary from country to country.Active Investing
With active investing you take an active role in managing the investment. This form of investing could have a long term focus such as a buy and hold share portfolio or it could be a short term focus such as futures trading.
To do well in active investing you need to have considerable knowledge of the investment vehicle or vehicles that you are using. You also need to understand the basic principles such as when to collect profits, when to cut losses and how to analyze the market. You also need the emotional strength to apply these strategies as required (this is often the most difficult aspect of active investing).
The advantages of active investing are that you have greater control over your investment than you do with passive investing and the potential for profit is theoretically higher. The disadvantages are that you need to invest time in acquiring knowledge and skills and in managing your investments and also that the potential for loss is also generally far greater than in passive investing.
Common examples of active investments are share, options, futures, and currency trading, buy and hold share portfolio building, buy and hold residential or commercial property, and property trading.Creative Investing
With creative investing you actually change the investment in some way that is designed to manufacture profit. This form of investment requires a lot of skill and experience but if you have that skill and experience then you can create huge profits by being able to visualize what your investment could be once you have applied your imagination to it. For this reason creative investing is often described as turning thought into money.
For example if you are a property developer there is a huge variety of possible developments that you could design and build on a particular piece of land. Amongst that huge set of possibilities there are also a huge range of potential outcomes ranging from high profit to huge loss and including all the points in between.
The advantages of creative investing are that it has the highest profit potential and the highest degree of control and flexibility. The disadvantages are that it requires the highest degree of knowledge, usually involves borrowing large sums of money and also has a huge potential for large losses if you get it wrong.
Common examples of creative investments are property development, property renovation, business renovation and new product development and marketing.
When you are deciding which of these three broad categories best suits you need to consider your knowledge and experience, your strengths and weaknesses, your access to resources, including time and money, and in particular you need to consider your personality including your time management skills, decision making skills, tolerance for risk and your self discipline.
There are of course many expert consultants to help you in each field and many sources of knowledge and experience to tap into.
I hope that this article was useful in helping you see where the various types of investments fit into the scheme of things.
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The second most important variable for a point and figure chart is the reversal threshold. The most common amount of reversal threshold is three boxes or three points. A new column is only added when a reversal in an existing column exceeds the reversal threshold.
What should be the reversal threshold or the reversal amount before a new column is added? The reversal amount in pips is 30 pips if the box size is set at 10 pips and the reversal amount is set at three boxes. So in case of a rising X column, price would need to turn back by at least 30 pips before a new O column would be added.
These two variables make the point and figure chart so effective at representing only the most major market moves disregarding all minor fluctuations known as noise. The significance of these two variables, the box size and the reversal threshold should be clearly understood.
The point and figure charts are excellent indicators of both trend and support/resistance. Since point and figure charts outline support and resistance so well, one of the best trading strategies in most common use with the point and figure charts is breakout trading.
Now there is a notable distinction between the bar and candlestick charts and the point and figure charts in the interpretation of double and triple tops and bottoms. In bar and candlestick charts, a double top is a potential bearish reversal signal.
Are you familiar with the chart patterns like the double and triple tops and bottoms? They are taken as important reversal signals in the trend. However, a double top is a resistance point where traders should be looking for a bullish break to the upside on the point and figure charts. The same difference holds for the double bottoms as well as triple tops and bottoms.
Charts patterns like triangles are prevalent as well. Like the horizontal support and resistances levels on these charts, the main method of trading trendlines and pattern on the point and figure charts is through breakouts. Point and figure charts also have their own versions of diagonal trend lines which are drawn at 45 degrees.
The point and figure charts focus exclusively on the price action. Price action is the most important aspect of technical trading. Point and figure charts give a very clear view of the market movements.
Point and figure charts had originated in the 19th century. It is because of this clarity in viewing and interpreting the price movements that the point and figure charts have withstood the test of time and are still popular with traders today as an increasing relevant analytical tool for forex traders.
Point and figure charts excel at representing clear evidence of such important technical characteristics as trend, support/resistance and breakout without the extraneous elements to clutter the picture.
Some may characterize point and figure trading as based upon pure price action. Other data that is readily available on the bar and candlestick charts like time, period opens/closes are generally excluded on the point and figure charts. This leaves only the uncluttered purity of price action.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Grab a totally unique version of this article from the Uber Article Directory
Why you need a trading system? You need a trading system to make sure that your trading decisions are not arbitrary and based on your whims or emotions. When selecting a trading system, first try to paper trade it. You need to paper trade your trading system to get the bugs out. Paper trading is not a substitute for live trading but still you can assume that 75% of the results that you achieve in demo trading can be replicated in live trading.
Win ratio and the payoff ration are two highly important figures to know for any trading system. Use the results of these paper trades to calculate your win ratio and payoff ratio. Determine what your personal win ratio and payoff ratio are in using that trading system over time.
The trading system, your money management system and you yourself, all three of you have to gel together. Now in the case of a successful trader, it takes three to tango here. The more profitable you will be over time, the stronger and more developed the relationship is between the three of you. So you have to develop not only a trading system but also a money management plan that suits your personality.
A trading system is not enough. You need a good money management plan as well. These numbers are required in developing a sound money management plan that will work hand in hand with that trading system. What can be the best parameters to selecting your trading system? When selecting your trading system, use these five parameters:
1) The trading system that you select is analytical and not whimsical based on your emotions. Trade entries in the trading system are defined by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and not on random and spontaneous decisions.
2) Before you enter the trade, the trading system is supposed to tell about the stop loss. The initial stop loss exit is determined before entering your trade.
3) The trading system that you select is rule based. Just like the trade entries, the trading system determines the trade exits by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and fundamental rules, not on any arbitrary dollar loss that you feel comfortable with.
4) Your trading system has been adequately paper traded or live traded and you have determined your personal statistical performance. You need to know your win ratio and the payoff ratio.
Win ratio and the payoff ratios are two number that are personal to you and your trading system. Some traders would like to use the win ratio and the payoff ratio achieved by the other traders. Do not rely on the results that the other got with that trading system. Use the actual results that you attained while using that trading system in calculating your win ratio and the payoff ratio.
Do not try to rely on computer back tested results. Your personal performance results are the real results that matter. You cannot depend on computer results and other traders results.
5) Your trading rules should be written out step by step in sequence so that the entries and exits are consistent, clear and above all quantifiable.
Have you ever heard of the Turtle Trading System? One perfect example of a rule based trading system is the Turtle Trading System. This system was developed for the commodities futures market.
You must know the story of Turtle Trading Rules. The story of Turtle trading rules is very interesting. The creators of that trading system had a discussion one day. One was of the opinion that great traders are born. The other said great traders can be made.
Both had a bet. Advertisements were placed in the Wall Street Journal and the Barrons. A number of completely new traders were selected to teach them those rules and see if they could become successful traders. Many succeeded with this trading system and became highly successful traders.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Know Forex Charts! Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service