The Big Economic Factors Behind the Boise Real Estate Market

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter as businesses drew down inventories at a much slower pace and boosted investment, a government report showed on Friday. Based on this good news, the Boise real estate market will be buoyed by the gains in economy.

With Gross Domestic Product growth projected at a satisfying 5.7%, based on Commerce Department data from the 4th quarter, but actually came in at 5.9%, surpassing many expectations. It was still the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2% annual rate in the third quarter. Adding these contributing factors in with local ones, will help stabilize the Boise real estate market.

In the winter period the GDP posted fore-casted growth of 5.7%, which indicates goods and services production totals, according to Reuters. While the economy rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009 from the worst downturn since the 1930s, data so far suggests the rapid rate of acceleration slowed somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. Considering the housing slump and the low consumer confidence reports, businesses continued to reduce inventories to purchase needed software and equipment which all added up to a boost in fourth quarter numbers. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.

Growth was projected to be about 2.2%, but has been revised down to about 1.9%, which shows that growth has been due to reduced inventories and not so much a return of market demand. Business inventories fell only $16.9 billion in fourth quarter instead of $33.5 billion estimated last month. They dropped $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The inventory changes alone were responsible for a 3.88% difference in GDP. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

Not since the U.S. economy was recovering from World War II, in 1946, has it experienced the substantial drop in GDP of 2.4%. Even consumer spending projections had to be adjusted downward from 2% in January to the actual number of 1.7% increase. That was below the 2.8% rate in the prior quarter when consumption got a boost from the government’s “cash for clunkers” auto purchase program. A huge block of our economy normally comes from consumer spending, around 70%, but in the fourth quarter of 2009 it only added a minuscule 1.23%. With the rest of the nation still ironing out the best way to deal with the chaos, the Boise real estate market is dealing with it as well.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. With business investment being much higher than the projected 2.9%, at 6.5% actually, improvement is on the way. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. Spending on new home construction grew at a slower 5% rate in the fourth quarter, instead of 5.7% estimated last month. With growth as high as 18.9%, the third quarter was a busy one. On the back of stronger exports and imports, which left a trade gap adding .3% to the GDP, the fourth quarter boasted better numbers than otherwise anticipated. As GDP indicates our national economic states, Boise real estate eagerly awaits is significant turn around.

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